The Basics Of Horse Race Handicapping
Sports gambling is a popular pursuit because everyone understands the basics of how teams win and lose and why. Horses, meanwhile, are an entirely different animal”no pun intended. It is a complex discipline unto itself, and a sound background in handicapping sports doesn’t insure success, or even mediocrity in handicapping the ponies. In fact, the history of sports betting is replete with successful gamblers that had a weakness for horse betting, with an emphasis on the word weakness. Most notable, perhaps, is the former resident handicapper at CBS, Jimmy The Greek Snyder. The story goes that The Greek was a first rate sports handicapper, but he couldn’t pick the winner of a one horse race when playing the ponies. The bad news for The Greek is that he enjoyed playing the ponies nonetheless, and often frittered away the money he won at the other end of the sportsbook.
The information below is the bare bones basics of what you need to know to enjoy a day at the horse track. If you’re interested in becoming a serious horse handicapper, you’re best advice to start with one of the countless books or DVDs that deal specifically with the discipline.
Do your reading: When you arrive at the horse track you should purchase a copy of the Daily Racing Form (DRF for short) and the track program. The DRF is basically the ‘bible’ of horse race handicapping, and offers morning line odds, horse, trainer, jockey statistics and information on each race at every major track across the country. The track program offers similar information for that individual venue, often in more ‘user friendly’ form.
You’re not playing against the house: One thing to keep in mind when playing the horses that is drastically different from sports betting is that you’re not playing against ‘the house’, you’re playing against other betters. The track just accepts and pays bets, taking out a cut (called the ‘takeout’) for their services. The track odds are determined by the money bet on each horse. Long odds on a horse doesn’t necessarily indicate a ‘bad horse’ but just one that for whatever reason isn’t attracting bettor interest.
So where do odds in the newspaper or program originate? These are known as the ‘morning odds’ or ‘morning line’ and is basically an educated guess as to where the betting will go. They can be helpful as a handicapping tool, but may or may not reflect what will happen in the actual betting.
Horse handicapping basics: This is where horse racing gets complex–there are countless theories about how to handicap a horse race. Some handicappers consider the breeding lineage of the horse, while others are more concerned with past performance. Still others put more weight on the training a horse has received, or its workout performance.
Once a bettor reaches a conclusion about what he thinks will happen in a given race, it is still subject to the odds that are available when betting. This is similar to sports gambling, where an underdog may be more attractive due to an excessively high payback potential than he would ordinary, or, conversely, a clear favorite becomes an unattractive wagering proposition due to a prohibitively high price. Its all a matter of the math”if I could speak to the teenagers of America, Id try to impress upon them the importance of doing well in math for no other reason than its importance in all forms of gambling.
Training and bloodlines: Handicappers often focus on a horse’s breeding lineage, considering the quality of the bloodlines and the racing pedigree of his parents and grandparents. Others put great focus on a horse’s trainers. An ‘A-list’ trainer can often get the most out of a horse much in the same way an elite level NFL coach can cause a team to ‘over perform’.
The horse’s jockey: Jockeys are free agents, meaning that they get paid on their performance. In theory, this means that they’ll do their utmost to win in every given race. While there are a few exceptions, many serious horse handicappers downplay the importance of the jockey. Assuming the horse’s ‘mount’ is competent, there are much more salient factors to consider when handicapping a race than the jockey.
Dedication and Discipline: There’s not a set formula for successful horse handicapping, so try different things and find what works for you. And, as always, don’t go overboard with the money you wager and particularly until you get a feel for what you’re doing. If you’re interested in learning more, check out the Daily Racing Form website.
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer who has written on sports betting and how to successfully bet on NFL football. He has appeared as a guest on TV and radio talking about boxing, cricket and NFL pointspreads. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a lynx.
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